Insights
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
The rate the US government pays to borrow for ten years — the benchmark for the cost of money worldwide.
The 10-year and 2-year yields. When the lines flip, it's read as a recession warning.
How to read this chart
When the 2-year yield rises above the 10-year (the lines flip), that's a yield-curve inversion. Historically it has been read as a recession warning. Fast-rising yields are a burden for crypto in their own right.
New to this metric?
What is the 10-year yield? The interest paid by the safest asset in the world. When it spikes, there's less reason to hold risky assets like crypto; when it settles, money has tended to flow back into risk assets.
Why do yields matter for crypto?
The 10-year yield is the benchmark for 'interest you can earn with no risk'. The higher it climbs, the less attractive it is to hold a volatile asset like crypto, so crypto has tended to struggle when yields spike.
Why is the 2-year on the chart too?
Because the position of the two lines matters. Normally the 10-year sits above the 2-year; when the 2-year climbs above the 10-year it's called an 'inversion'. It has often appeared ahead of recessions, so it's read as a recession warning.
How do I use it?
Watch the speed of change rather than the level itself. Stretches where yields rise fast are read as a headwind for crypto; stretches where they roll over from a peak as a tailwind. Keep an eye on whether the two lines cross as well.