Insights
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
Shows how much coin holders are up or down on coins they have not sold yet.
Here's the trend so far. The yellow dashed line is the Bitcoin price.
How to read this chart
Below 0 is capitulation (bottom zone), above 0.75 is euphoria/greed (top zone). The dashed lines at 0.25 and 0.5 in between mark the hope, optimism and belief stages.
New to this metric?
What is NUPL? The market's unrealized profit-and-loss statement. Below 0, everyone is underwater (capitulation); above 0.75, most sit on big gains (euphoria), which is often read as an overheating signal.
What is unrealized profit or loss?
Gains or losses that are not locked in because the coins have not been sold. If you bought Bitcoin for $100,000 and it is now worth $150,000, your unrealized profit is $50,000. NUPL adds this up across the whole market and shows it as a share of market cap.
How are the stages divided?
Five stages: capitulation (below 0), euphoria/greed (above 0.75), and three 0.25-wide zones in between. Those middle zones are called hope, optimism and belief when entered from below, and fear, anxiety and denial when entered from above, because the same number means a different mood coming down from a top than climbing up from a bottom. In past cycles, euphoria overlapped with tops and capitulation with bottoms.
How do I use it?
Watch which stage the market is in and whether it is changing, rather than daily moves. Entering euphoria has been read as a warning of overheating, and capitulation as a long-term opportunity. Stages shift slowly, though, so it is a poor short-term trading signal.